10 December 2006

Nuclear chess in India

Interesting article in the NYTimes today. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/10/world/asia/10india.html?ex=1323406800&en=51b114f5c9927d2b&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

All power to India for negotiating its groundbreaking nuclear agreement with the US. The trade fits the national interests of both parties (narrowly defined). India gets access to power generating nuclear technology to fuel its booming economy - and concedes none of its nuclear weapons program. In return they open their burgeoning market to US investment - a significant bargaining chip (chess was of course invented in India).

But the conseqences for multilateral efforts to constrain the spread of nuclear weapons are grave - and relatively silent. In embracing an overt violator of the non-proliferation treaty, the US undermines its capacity to enforce the non-proliferation norm elsewhere (at a time when this is a priority). One exception begets more. A new non-proliferation regime dependant on the singular judgement of the preponderant world power would seem shaky. Ultimately the NPT of the 70's has been revealed as an empty promise - the diffusion of nuclear power technology has been overly constrained, and nuclear powers themselves have not disarmed. A great pity. Now that the horse has bolted, perhaps pragmatism is the only way forward. I can't see where the next non-proliferation leader is going to come from (perhaps a missed opportunity for the UK to make a moral stand and scrap its nuclear deterrent... but that's another issue).

No comments: