Into hibernation....

Three things to note:

a) Zimbabwe is a mess - nuff said.

b) Exams are imminent, and mild fear is coursing through my veins

c) Bidip and exam brilliance are highly incompatible.

Noting the above, Bidip shall be retired until at least July. The real world is there for the living.

Thanks for listening to my musings!

Out of the ice, into the fire

I'm taking a holiday (of sorts) in a certain repressive country in southern Africa, a place where aformentioned films are seemingly being re-enacted.

I'll be in touch.

Out of the woods.....

Here is some good news.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6416835.stm

Five Nights of Bleeding

The solace of cinema proved elusive this weekend. By accident more than design I watched two films on Africa's brutal tendencies. In 'Blood Diamond' the horrors of civil war and child soldiers tore through Sierra Leone. In 'Last King of Scotland' Idi Amin's insanity tore through Uganda. Meanwhile in South Africa a dear friend recovered in hospital after being shot in a robbery. None of these stories have a silver lining, none depart from reality, and none reflect well on Africa.

For some reason I was reminded of Jamaican-Brit poet Linton Kwesi Johnson's 'Five Nights of Bleeding.' (imagine a thick Jamaican accent and a slow, rhythic cadence - its about riots in London).

Madness, madness

Madness tight on the heads of the rebels

The bitterness erup's like a heart blas'

Broke glass, ritual of blood an' a-burnin'

Served by a cruelin' fighting

5 nights of horror and of bleeding

Broke glass, cold blades as sharp as the eyes of hate

And the stabbin', it's

War amongs' the rebels

Madness, madness, war

-

Night number one was in Brixton

Sofrano B sound system

'im was a-beatin' up the riddim with a fire

'im comin' down his reggae reggae wire

It was a sound checkin' down your spinal column

A bad music tearin' up your flesh

An' the rebels dem start a fighting

De youth dem just tun wild, it's

War amongs' the rebels

Madness, madness, war

-

Night number two down at Sheppard's

Right up Railton road

It was a night name friday when ev'ryone was high on brew or drew(?)
A pound or two worth of Kali

Sound comin' down of the king's music iron

The riddim just bubblin' an' backfirin'

Ragin' an' risin'

When suddenly the music cut -
Steelblade drinkin' blood in darkness, it's

War amongs' the rebels

Madness, madness, war

-

Night number three, over the river

Right outside the Rainbow

Inside James Brown was screamin soul

Outside the rebels were freezin' cold

Babylonian tyrants descended

Bounced on the brothers who were bold

So with a flick of the wris', a jab and a stab

The song of hate was sounded

The pile of oppression was vomited

And two policemen wounded

Righteous, righteous war

-

Night number four at the blues dance, abuse dance

Two rooms packed and the pressure pushin' up

Hot, hotheads

Ritual of blood in the blues dance

Broke glass splintering, fire

Axes, blades, brain blas'

Rebellion rushin' down the wrong road

Storm blowin' down the wrong tree

And Leroy bleeds near death on the fourth night

In a blues dance, on a black rebellious night, it's

War amongs' the rebels

Madness, madness, war

-

Night number five at the telegraph

Vengeance walk thru de doors

So slow, so smooth

So tight and ripe and -smash!

Broke glass, a bottle finds a head

And the shell of the fire heard -crack!

The victim feels fear

Finds hands, holds knife, finds throat

Oh, the stabbins and the bleedin' and the blood, it's

War amongs' the rebels

Madness, madness, war

Madness applied

This man is a friggin saint and a fabulous mate. The picture was taken in 2003 in Attridgeville Township outside Pretoria. Since then on this site he has built a hospice to care for dying HIV/AIDS patients. He raised the money and runs it. It granted the gift of dignity to the dying where there was little. Why someone would invade this place and shoot him is beyond my capacity for comprehension. All thoughts towards a speedy recovery.

Conclusive evidence that the world is ****ed up

Irish priest shot in South Africa
Thursday, 1 March 2007 16:22

A missionary priest who is originally from Belfast has been shot in South Africa. Father Kieran Creagh, who works with Aids sufferers, was attacked at the hospice he built in Johannesburg. He is now said to be in a stable condition in hospital. Father Creagh's brother Liam said it was a traumatic experience: 'Two men came in and over-powered the guards. 'They went up to the apartment where he stays at the hospice and they rang the bell. He thought it was a patient coming to get him. 'He opened the door and I think there was a bit of a struggle. 'They fired two shots at least. One shot hit him in one of his lungs, and it is lodged there, and the other shot went through his arm.'
_______________________________________________

South Africa: Gang Shoots Priest in Hospice Attack

Cape Argus (Cape Town)
March 1, 2007

The Irish priest who was the first person in South Africa and Africa to volunteer to take part in the country's first HIV vaccine trial run by the South African Aids Vaccine Initiative in 2003, is fighting for his life after being shot three times. Father Kieran Creagh heard a bell ring at his flat at the Leratong Hospice in Soshanguve, near Pretoria, last night and thought it was a nurse summoning him to come and pray with a dying patient. But when he opened the door he was confronted by eight gunmen. He was shot three times. Creagh, director of the hospice and who lives on the premises, was alone in his flat when he was attacked by the gang, which appears to have taken his cellphone and DVD player.

This morning Creagh was in critical condition in ICU at the Zuid Afrikaans Hospital. Matron Ramigia Tloubatla, who accompanied him in the ambulance and was at his side throughout the night, said surgeons were planning to operate soon. She said Creagh had remained awake and had spoken to her about what had happened. "He said somebody rang the bell and he thought it was a nurse calling him to a patient. But when he opened the door he was confronted with a gun ... and then they were all on top of him. About eight guys," she said. - Staff Reporter

__________________________________
Please keep Kieran in your thoughts and prayers (of whatever brand).

Random London

Every minute in this manic city a thousand unusual things unveil themselves. Alas, most disappear in the moment of their discovery. On the way to school this morning I was lucky enough to spot three.

1) A quiet balding man, resplendent in track pants and a belly-bloated t-shirt, stepped out of the silverlink carriage at Caladonia Road Station, turned on a sixpence, and waved goodbye to the train until it disappeared around the bend.

2) At Kings Cross Station, a girl of 20 grinned at the world through double dimples. In the middle of each dimple she wore a metal stud, the perfect complement to her multiple nose rings, her tattooed neck and her boyfriend's gravity defying mohawk.

3) In covent garden two monocyles were chained to adjacent lamp posts.

Cultural imperialism out, cultural dialectic in.

THIS article offers some really interesting counterfactuals about cultural imperialism. Seems the relationship between globalisation and western culture is not a linear as we may assume.

And on the general topic THIS excellent piece in Foreign Affairs castes some interesting light on the US's embrace of rising India and China. It's the topic of our times - how to change the global architecture to accomodate these emerging giants. Institutions created in the 1940s ossify the world view of WW2's victors (particularly its western ones). Unreformed, they just won't cut it in future. These are very interesting issues - particularly for the US. How will it cope with sharing the limelight (and giving up a degree of autonomy)? And how will it manage the relative demographic and economic decline of Europe? Worth a read.

I'm thinking of introducing a rating system for articles - given that not everyone I know has my quota of reading hours each day. I'd give the first article 3.5 stars (a worthwhile caveat to a tired debate), and the second 4.5 stars (the most accessible synthesis of the India/China challenge I've read).

South Africa: Complex evermore

I really wish I had written more during my time in South Africa. There's a reason so many amazing novels come out of that country - South Africa represents the frontline of humanity. It grapples with all the uncomfortable issues that the rest of us squirm to avoid: Race; class; poverty; violence; religion; language; identity; all are write large across its much traumatised landscape. It is quite simply like nowhere else on the planet.

A NY Times article - HERE - catches a glimpse of South Africa's social complexity. It looks at how Afrikaaners are dealing with their dual history of victimhood and victimisation, and the reaction of other ethnic groups to their expression of cultural pride. People need identity, and history - and its bloody hard to be weighed down by histories mistakes. I met plenty of young Afrikaaners who were so proud of their new nation, proud of their heritage and language, but well aware of how history and the world stereotypes them. I also met a fair few unreconstructed isolationists (like the Orania types in this article). Alistair Sparks (I think) noted that the ANC are fonder of the Afrikaaners than they are of British South Africans - In their view the white english-speaking liberals were all talk and no action during apartheid, and dual-passport holders. The Afrikaaners at least were committed to the land, perhaps a little too ruthlessly. That the ANC and the National Party have since merged is testament to this - strange bedfellows in a strange bed. Anyway, have a read before it disappears into the NY times vault.

Hi, I'm from Oceania

Today, for the first time in my life, I was tagged as a representative of 'Oceania.' How very exotic and Miss World that sounds. It made me think a little about being Oceanian (is that the correct name?). I thought of my friends who work for the EU and their unitary joy at being 'European.' I thought of the debate about 'Asian values' and about the ANC's soaring rhetoric on 'African unity', and I thought of the hymns to Bolivarian solidarity sung by Chavez and his South American pals. But who weeps tears of joy for Oceania? It sounds like a theme park - all watersides, fish tanks and polenesian goddesses. Perhaps Disney will make a movie about Oceania and we can all understand what it is we belong to. In the meantime, I'm going to try an experiment - if asked where I'm from I'll say "Oceania", bursting with pride. Lets see if anyone sniggers.

Thesis titles: colons; attention seeking; in-jokes; and pictures

Our thesis titles are due Thursday. I've been grappling with how to combine the essential ingredients for a winning title with a relatively dry topic - investment rules. A winner needs to combine 1) colon or semi-colon, 2) gratuitous attention seeking language to differentiate from the mountain of turgid rants, 3) subtle in-jokes only decipherable by geeky insiders in your academic sub-field, and 4) appropriate pictures or cartoons. Here is my initial effort with accompanying translation.

Some retreat, no surrender; the application of ‘national interest’ assessments for FDI in the Australian resource sector.

Accompanied by this image:

Some retreat, no surrender romps home on the first three criteria and seamlessly links to the fourth (I'm sure Andy W wouldn't mind). Semi-colon - tick, attention seeking - big tick, in-joke - double tick (a political economy guru once wrote a book called 'the retreat of the state' in which she argued that global companies were diminishing state sovereignty AND she was the head of my LSE department for many years). I reserve the right to change the fourth for fear of being tagged flippant, but I think it could work well. It captures the confusion of the state (played by Elvis) in the face of foreign investment, and the ambiguity that lies within 'national interest assessments. Now for the 9990-odd other words....

Hoorah for Max

My disappointment when Maxine McKew departed the ABC has evaporated under the searingly hot news that she will run for parliament. How fabulous to have such a savvy, intelligent woman added to the mix. And in running for the PM's seat, she redefines political genius. How surreal it will be to watch Howard vs McKew in a baby-kissing competition deep within a suburban shopping centre - life imitates Lateline. Alongside Garrett, the ALP is building a formidable arsenal of notable Australians with serious brain power and community credibility. The rough sketch of an alternative government is taking shape, and it's exciting. There is a long way to the line, but somebody should modernise the 'its time' jingle - because it is.

Pragmatic idealists unite

Politics is the art of the enlightened trade-off. To define it otherwise would be to paint the world in one-dimension. If my current academic preoccupation is any guide, pretty much everything is linked to pretty much everything else, and the world is rendered complex because of it. In such a world it is impossible to quarantine any issue from its broader context. In this we can find an explanation for Peter Garrett's willingness to counternance US bases in Australia, despite his previously states views. He has prioritised his environmental/social justice concerns over his views on Australia's strategic relationship with the US - pragmatic idealism manifest. I loved Tracee Hutchinson's piece on this issue - HERE - in which she associates a degree of idealism with the decision of most politicians to get involved in politics. There is definately a place in the world for non-pragmatic idealists, but outcomes-based politics demands the occasional compromise. Ce la vie.

If I ever find myself in a lift with Peter Garrett I'll tell him "Sir, you are one of the main reasons I became passionate about politics. Viva the oils." 'Diesel and Dust' did so much to get indigenous issues on our national agenda - to bring the desert into our lounge rooms. I'll never forget an oils concert at the Tennis Centre in which they sang 'beds are burning.' In the middle of the song, as the mulleted many sang 'the time has come, a facts a fact, it belongs to them, lets give it back' Peter Garrett stopped the music, turned the lights on the crowd and yelled "say it like you mean it!" Suddenly a punchy song's familiar lyrics rang out as a profound political statement. It was a stunning use of rock music as a political medium - few there would forget it. There's no contradiction between holding strong views and being involved in politics. In fact, leaving the Peter Garretts out of politics would be a waste of passion and a diminution of the legitimacy of power. So roll on idealists one and all. Pragmatism is ok so long as the flame of idealism burns on.

"The elephant in our rooms"

I've always been sceptical about Timothy's who don't go by Tim - there is something a little too stiff about it. Adding a Professorial title and a double-barelled surname would seem to necessitate a walking stick and monacle. But Professor Timothy Garton-Ash is ok.

His article on the future of capitalism is worth a read - if just for his line about 'manufacturing desire'. Link to it HERE

"Marx thought capitalism would have a problem finding consumers for the goods that improving techniques of production enabled it to churn out. Instead, it has become expert in a new branch of manufacturing: the manufacture of desires. The genius of contemporary capitalism is not simply that it gives consumers what they want but that it makes them want what it has to give. It's that core logic of ever-expanding desires that is unsustainable on a global scale. But are we prepared to abandon it? ."

They train 'em young

One half of a phone conversation six rows in front of me on the 168 bus. Participant: 20-odd, dolled up, big loopy ear-rings and excellent elocution.

"Darling... so naice of you to cawll..... rearlly brilliant.... darling...... darling, families can be so tiresome..... weddings hey..... DID HE?....... oh darling......yes....yes.....yes, you're right darling.....no darling, lets make a decision on that next week....know what i mean?....yes darling, no point rushing it...... so I'll see you next weekend then?..... I suspect we'll jet down on friday darling.... yes, so tiresome.... yes, drama drama....mmmm blah blah blah..... (giggle) ....yes darling....ya....ya....ya ya....ha!.... Fantastic news darling, rearlly fantastic.... kisses darling....ta ra."

Do we fit in yet?

I stumbled across this description of Australia in my readings on regionalism. Interesting from the perspective of how we view ourselves.

"Australia’s problem is self-evident. ‘Think of a Canada that had been towed away from where it is, and moored off Africa, and the problems of Australia’s physical location become clear’. But looking for Australia two decades later, salvage crews exploring mooring places off the coast of Africa are likely to come up empty-handed. Responding to dynamic economic growth in Asia, then Opposition Leader John Howard appealed to physical and economic geography when he stated that ‘there is no doubt that we are incredibly fortunate that our geography has cast us next to the fastest growing region in the world’. Geography-as-destiny.... ‘Without actually becoming Asian’, Gavan McCormack writes, ‘Australia is struggling to articulate a regional universalism and to become simultaneously post-European and post-Asian, transcending both its own European racial and cultural heritage and any racially or culturally specific Asia’."

Katzenstein (2000)

Thinkwanks

There is a fine line between think tanks and think wanks. On the one hand enlivened debate with sharp analysts, on the other dreary cliche-fests with balding plodders. Tonight I walked the line. What is it about foreign policy discussions that attracts pompous, opinionated old men who love to float their well rounded vowels across a room, at length. Is it old age that leads them to confuse questions with soap boxes. Not content to enjoy the thoughts on offer they stand, with notes, and deliver a monologue of commentary, a conceptual jungle, swarming with anecdotes, the dropping of names, and a sprinkling of ideas stolen from this week's Economist. One ventures (one does) to suggest that this is the adult equivalent of student union meetings, albeit more tightly managed. Beware think tanks that masquerade as clubs that for the retrospectively fabulous. Humanity doth not advance in such rarefied surrounds.

Bureaucratic activism - Dr Elbaradei (IAEA)

IAEA Director-General, Dr Mohamed Elbaradei spoke at school today. It's sad that his criticism of the nuclear weapons state's unwillingness to disarm (as required under the 35 year old Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) could be described as radical, but that's where the disarmament debate is at. Unusual (and welcome) to see an experienced international bureaucrat willing to stick his neck out to describe the shortcomings of the system, and a pleasant surprise to hear him talk passionately about development as a component of international security - "if we had more Mother Theresa's we'd have less suicide bombers." Here are some of his main points:

- The current security system is not sustainable because it is not equitable. States have legitimate security concerns that need to be met. For example Iran feels threatened by 140,000 US troops in Iraq, quasi-nuclear Israel, nuclear Russia, nuclear Pakistan and a history of regional conflict - these perceived vulnerabilities need to be offset somehow.

- Need an international security system that does not rely on nuclear weapons. So long as one state has them, proliferation will happen. Proliferation is not a technological issue, but a threat perception issue. Proliferants tend to be in unstable regions - the instability is a root cause of proliferation and must be addressed.

- Current peace and security architecture ignores the plight of those less strategically relevant (DRC, Rwanda, Sudan, etc). A new system needs to be based on human security. The individual right to security is entwined with the right to peace, dignity and freedom.

- There is a contradiction between nuclear weapons states modernising their arsenals (eg: UK Trident) while at the same time preaching to nuclear aspirants that nuclear weapons are not the path to their security. What possible use do nuclear weapons states have for 27,000 warheads "short of an alien invasion." Despite the legal obligations under the NPT, the issue needs political resolution.

- The unilateral approach to security is easier ("instant gratification"), but delivers less long-term benefits. Multilateralism is harder but the only way.

- On Iran, engagement is necessary. Sanctions are only one tool and need to be supplemented by direct engagement. "Isolation strengthens the hardliners, engagement empowers the moderates." Need also to deal with the longstanding bilateral grievances between the US and Iran.

- Elbaradei was particularly taken by Bill Clinton's view - Powerful states needs to build a world they would want to live in should they ever cease to be the big guys on the block.

Dogs that ride

Every city has its quirk. London, it seems, remains committed to its long abandoned agrarian roots; sheepdogs and cattle in pastures green. Only this could explain their penchant for encouraging dogs on public transport. What I had first thought the act of a slightly loopy minority, turns out to be wholly acceptable behaviour.On my bus this morning were two dogs, both fresh from a good mudroll on hampstead heath, sweat-matted coats glistening with stinky droplets, a mere shimmy away from being sprayed across my lower half. Last week, at the peak of the morning rush hour, a man took his alsacian for a ride on the tube. Poor thing was buried beneath the crush of entangled humanity, panting for air. While it can be argued that there is no difference between the mangy armpit of a elderly male tube-rider, and the mangy coat of his dog, I'd argue that there is no difference between a dog and a rooster, or for that matter a cow. I'm a self-professed dog-sceptic, and am often branded strange for failing to enjoy a dog's lick, but this is a case of dogs-as-pseudo-humans gone haywire. Am I alone?

News from a firehose

Thomas Friedman (whose world is flat) complains that absorbing the output of the ever expanding blogosphere is 'like drinking your news from a firehose.' Great line!

The webification of talking heads

Our dependence on lateline/BBCworld etc is almost over. Talking heads are coming to your laptop via the web. I was struck by this site http://bloggingheads.tv

Here for example is a link to a dialogue with Francis Fukuyama on the way forward in Iraq

(http://bloggingheads.tv/video.php?id=199). This type of thing is really exciting for IR geeks (like me) - access to highly influential pontificators at the flick of a switch. This format is the way of the future - the challenge is to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Funk was born again in Nigeria

Anyone familiar with Femi Kuti (or his daddy Fela 'the Great') would know that funk was reborn in Nigeria. So imagine Femi, coked to his eyeballs, driving his horn section like a mustang convertible - fist-in-the-air stuff! Such was I treated to last night at the Barbican - the 'African rebels tour.'

Also in the lineup an Algerian group called 'Akli D' (great north african music - a la 'radio tarifa'). But highlight for me was 'Ba Cissoko' - a group of Kora players from Guinea. Just amazing. Check 'em out here www.ba-cissoko.com (you can listen to album samples).

Someone warned me Africa would get under my skin..... moments like this I know they were right. Immersed in soaring rhythmes and cross-hatched melodies I remembered the many sublime moments in southern Africa, the hole it has left, and ways I could revisit it. Praise be to such transformative music.

On the Obama-Osama-Ohmamamia saga.....

So the world has shrunk. The global and the local are fused. It's always been fair game for federal leaders to diss state governments, and for states to diss the feds, but intercontinental dissing has generally been off-limits (excluding of course the Castro/Chavez/Latham hothead types). Most peculiar then to see the Obama-Howard fishslapping dance. Transcribe it, frame it and put it in the Tate Modern because this my friends is the trippiest piece of performance art I've seen in a while. We've not been treated to such freeform interpretive commentary since PK's 'recalcitrant' call. My more serious sentiments are best captured by The Australian's Geoff Elliot: here.

Climate change projections

Here is an interesting NY Times article on climate change projections. Worth a read (for those with time to dabble in such things). I always like a de-emotionalised perspective. Gore's film served a purpose, and I'd prefer his 'shock&schmaltz' to 'shock&awe' anyday, but the evil carbon emitters (who kindly make our lights shine at night) are not swayed by schmultz alone. Facts facts facts are the key to winning 'em over. And undistorted ones at that - no place for urban myths even when it rains on a summer day.

De La Soul in Camden

Snow on the heath

Without direct attribution....

So, clarification of the Chatham House rule:"When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed"). Here are some of the interesting ideas generated in the Middle East meeting.

Firstly, British policy in the Middle East is viewed within the region in the context of its prior imperial activities. Coloniser Britain acted on a civilising mission, driven by British ideals and values. Contemporary efforts are likewise driven by values-based foreign policy (democracy, human rights, etc). The latter bears more than a passing resemblance to the former. Western states need to move away from the presumption that they can 'decide what to do about the middle east'. The contemporary region is less and less amenable to the imposition of external priorities. The old 'hub and spoke' world view is outdated and delusional.

Second, there exists a perception in the Middle East that 'values' of Britain and the US are infused with Christianity - and that western countries lack self-awareness of this. Even if not embodied in the structures of state, Islam is culturally important to middle-eastern countries. The rationalisation of western foreign policy in terms of 'values' can be interpreted as a threat to the place of Islam in society. Democracy is not viewed as a universal value but western, and a trojan horse for westernisation. Further, conservative (not radical) societies support some values (human rights) but not necessarily others (democracy). This value structure is deeply embedded and must be respected.

Finally, policy makers should focus their energies on embedding human rights norms in the middle east (an attainable goal) rather than seeking to impose democracy. Iraq demonstrates that elections and parliaments are not sufficient foundations for stable societies. Further, democracy can serve to legitimise and mainstream radical fringe groups.

Interesting thoughts, appearing here in slimmed down form.

The problem with Chatham House is...

I went to a forum on Middle East issues last night at Chatham House - my first visit to the hollowed birthplace of the 'Chatham House rule'. The presentation was insightful and provocative but to my great frustration said rule prevents me sharing it with the world. Instead check www.chathamhouse.org.uk for some of their interesting research output.

A Democrat vision of US foreign policy 2008

Professor Bruce Jentleson (Duke University) spoke at school last night. He was senior foreign policy advisor in the Clinton/Gore White House (and from the sounds of things remains fairly heavily engaged with Democrat policy). He laid out six dimensions of a rejuvenated US foreign policy post-Bush. I paraphrase heavily, though some of his more snappy phrases are included. Pie in the sky perhaps, but should '08 deliver a Democrat White House some ideas may find their way into policy.

1. US should act as a 'fulcrum, not a foil', of multilateralism. Need to rebuild trust between the UN and US. The United Nations must focus 'less on multilateralism's desirability and more on its doability' - ie: outcomes will increase esteem for its work. US should expand engagement with regional organisations and non-state actors (global governance considerations increasingly important).

2. The US needs a strategic outlook that is inclusive of other major powers not defensive against them. Should increase the stakes of other powers in global peace - this would be a more reliable base than US hegemony alone. Special focus required on relationship with China, Europe, Russia. Good signs with cooperation on Iran and North Korea. Common approach to non-core strategic issues like Darfur required.

3. US should be a security enhancer, not detractor. Increased focus on diplomacy required - 'Diplomacy is not a dirty word' and resort to it is "something real men can do." In disputes, US needs to emphasise 'policy change not regime change.' This worked in the case of Libya where proliferation policy, not political differences, drove effective diplomacy. Force must be used more judiciously. Security priorities should be 1) Terrorism - not monolithic and needs a nuanced response. Impact of terrorism is 'more Shakespeare than statistics' - ie: be realistic about the threat. Current engagement on terrorism one-way - allies such as Egypt, Indonesia may question value of cooperation. 2) Arab-Israeli dispute - Bush White House the first in four decades not to prioritise resolution of the conflict. 3) Iran - need a broad approach to the Iran-US relationship and recognition that it is a regional power. Must give sanctions time to work (see Jentleson's recent paper on Iran here). 4) Darfur - genocide unacceptable (Bush policy on Darfur not bad).

4. Development efforts should prioritise 'human security' beyond simply 'democracy promotion'. No democracy can be stable unless it delivers development dividends. 'Good governance' would be a better focus that 'democracy'. Need to build structures that recognise countries' different stages of economic and political development. Fukuyama was wrong when he suggested political/economic evolution would end with liberal market democracy. Poverty and inequality were missing dimensions of his analysis - and are key drivers of current global dissonance.

5. US should be a leader on global environment issues, not a laggard. US public debate is well behind that of Europe/UK. With leadership, US science could deploy its significant capabilities. Technology is an important part of the solution.

6. Must renew the domestic foundations of US foreign policy. Need to have house in order to act as a example to the world of how countries should be run. Katrina reflected badly on US priorities. Domestic debate needs to be freed up. 'Dissent is not disloyalty.'

He would not be drawn on which presidential candidate had enlisted his services (he advised the Kerry-Edwards campaign in '04), but suggested that candidates need to focus on ideas - what they would DO if elected as opposed to what they oppose. Further, '08 would be about US job security as much as it would be about Iraq.

Top ten ripping guitar solos ever...

This is GOLD. What is it about blokes, fat guitar solos and lists. For my money Pearl Jam should get a mention for 'Alive', Hendrix deserves to take out at least the top 5 spots, and Slash from GnRs deserves something for his awesome hair/guitar juxtupositions. How about an arm wrestle between AC/DC and Clapton to sneak into the top 10 - I know who'd win. No Stairway and absolutely nothing Bohemian.

The bottling of 'Aussie values'.

I'm writing my Msc thesis on foreign ownership of Australian resource companies. The Qantas furore provides a colourful backdrop. I'd love to have a 10,000 word rant about iconic companies and their rarefied status (along the lines of this article), but alas must weave my story into the tedious continuum of IPE theory - yawn.

However, I think this is an interesting question - to what degree do we allow firms to sell us an idealised version of ourselves for profit. Qantas says very little about the mechanics of flying in its advertisements. You'd think 'Qantas' was a touring children's choir, a beach holiday broker, or a government department devoted to building national self-love. They do very well out of us too. So long as our superannuation investments are the primary beneficiaries, Qantas' profit is not a bad thing. But in the hands of private equity the profit will be split by the few. The jobs are important, but should we still love Qantas?

There is a shampoo brand in the UK called "Aussie." It is owned by multi-national Procter& Gamble who sold US$29 billion of beauty and health products globally in 2006. Aussie Hair products are produced in the UK and sport a kangaroo on their logo. There is NO link to Australia beyond an attempt to capture 'Aussie values' along these vacuous lines "there's more to life than hair, but its a good start - The Aussie philosophy." In the US the slogan is "add some roo to your do." The Aussie hair website is blatant, linking their Aussie hair products to Australian cuisine, travel, lifestyle etc. Check this out:

"Think of Australia and beautiful beaches, hunky surfers and hot beach babes instantly springs to mind, but we assure you - Australia is much much more! Aussie is inspired by the vibrancy and free spirit of Australia, from the incredible natural ingredients we use in our products to the everyday vitality of the Aussie way of life."

Does anyone else find such a rip-off objectionable? Perhaps the fact that Proctor&Gamble has an office in Australia excuses this. Is it any different to Qantas? It's not like they're saying bad things about us, or our 'values'. I just find it slightly creepy that our character as a nation can literally be bottled for profit - with zero benefit to our country. Who do you tell? The WTO? Ban Ki-Moon?

The retro-rationale of the neo-cons

There is a interesting article in the Washington Post by Charles Krauthammer on the Iraq blame game. A sample. . .

"......... We have made a lot of mistakes in Iraq. But when Arabs kill Arabs and shiites kill Shiites and Sunnis kill all in a spasm of violence that is blind and furious and has roots in hatreds born long before America was even a republic, to place the blame on the one player, the one country, the one military that has done more than any other to try to separate the combatants and bring conciliation is simply perverse. It infantilizes Arabs. It demonizes Americans. It willfully overlooks the plainest of facts: Iraq is their country. We midwifed their freedom. They chose civil war."

There are no easy answers to the Iraq quagmire, but here we have the emerging neo-con defence of their Iraq policy - It was a valiant attempt, with soaringly worthy goals, but pesky extraneous factors beyond our control got in the way, and so ...... hands washed, self-perception intact. Read the story here.

Fun in the big city

Not wanting to sound too city-struck, but London unveiled some of its fabulosity on the weekend (though perhaps I was just shocked that a colourful world exists beyond the library). Friday evening was spent admiring Turner's luminous paintings at the Tate, amidst DJs, cocktails, video projections and other Gen Y carrots. Apparently, the loveliest of Turner's ethereal landscapes were for many years shunned in a vault as 'unfinished' - such was the formality demanded by those-who-knew in the art world. This seems to me a perfect example of the worth of questioning norms.

En route home we passed through a moonlit Trafalgar Square (the jetstream of a passing plane was lit up like a comet. A choreographer had collaborated with some IT/lighting supremos to create an interactive version of Swan Lake. As we danced across the square, spotlights followed us, and lights shimmered to create a ripples-on-water effect. It reacted to our every step - truly amazing. I rode home past the raucus Leicester Square spillover, the clamour of Camden and the quiet chilly streets of Gospel Oak.

As I bike past nightlit monuments (Westminster, Downing St, Buckingham Palace, Nelson's Column) I can't help but feel like they've all been minaturised and floodlit just for my benefit. They're all so small next to their reputations. And so unnoticed at night by the passing traffic. Who would suspect that the lonely late night cyclist was enthralled beyond his boots.

Pictures of other weekend sightings below. Life is good.

Looking down from the top of City Hall...

Open day at London Council - flash!

* the image been messed with a little, but the staircase and atrium were just spectacular. Details of the building are here.

FTAs in Asia - The Indonesian perspective

Indonesia's Trade Minister, Dr Marie Pangestu, spoke to our department yesterday on the impact of proliferating FTAs in Asia. As a former trade economics academic (undergrad at ANU) she was impressively across her brief.

Points of interest follow:

- Distinct contrast between her views of FTAs as an academic (the product of "bureaucratic entrepreneurs") and as a practitioner (a necessary step in the absence of multilateral movement). RTAs are here to stay and will continue to proliferate. Indonesia late to the game but negotiating bilateally and with ASEAN with China, Korea, Japan, India, Aust/NZ, Europe. No likelihood of EFTA negotiations except as a "practice FTA" - resources too stretched already.
- But concerned at the 'spagetti bowl' effect of proliferating trade agreements in Asia (trade diverting and distorting). Keen to focus ASEAN on common negotiations and harmonisation of tariffs across FTAs.
- Need to focus on FTAs that facilitate market forces not increase business cost. Prefer FTAs that include multiple members - sliding scale of usefulness from multilateral through regional/ plurilateral to bilateral.
- Keen on APEC guidelines on FTA best practise - perhaps the WTO should accept FTA reality an focus energies on ensuring they are not trade damaging.
- Prospect of an APEC FTA limited. US keen, Australia "largely supportive", Asia less interested. Too many different economies to easily harmonise. Prospect of an APEC FTA not likely to be effective as a tool to encourage EU to give more in the Doha round (apparently the threat of APEC pushed the EU to the line in the Uruguay round....)
- Strongly pushing ASEAN's 2015 Blueprint for liberalisation in flows of trade, capital, investment, services and labour.
- ASEAN insisting on capacity building clauses in all new FTAs (Indonesia particularly seeking assistance on SPS issues - EU rule changes on shrimps challenging). Negotiating capacity of DCs stretched by concurrent FTAs. Also in some agreements seeking undertakings on increased investment as well as lower tariffs (Japan).
- Rules of origin have been an issue in some FTA negotiations (India) but not others (China).
- On the shape of regional integration, likely to begin with ASEAN, and ASEAN + 1 as a priority, then ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6.
- No sensible talk of common regional currency - would require macro-coordination. Need to follow sequence of trade>macro-economic>monetary integration. In the meantime financial market coordination is important.
- On Indonesia specifically, noted the presence of reformist and non-reformist strands in parliament and public. Decentralisation of power a challenge to the implementation of common fees etc - direct election of governors will help. Anti-corruption drive making some gains but needs to filter down from islands of best practise - people need to 'own the issue'. Investment Law was more contested within parliament than public (contrary to expectations). Biggest challenge in reform is selling the message to the public - need subsidies to ease pain of adjustment. Some sectors must be protected (rice).
- On movement in the Doha Round she said she's moved from "suspended pessimism to cautious optimism" after Davos.
- Initiatives on south-south trade unlikely to extend beyond Asia, although Africa a prospect after discussions with South Africa - will not be PTAs - they don't work.
- Keen for academic research into design of 'good' FTAs.

Magic music can be found....

clickclickclickclick HERE clickclickformybrothernick

"The great unbundling of production"

An interesting paper by economist Richard Baldwin on globalisation and offshoring. Worth a read/skim for impacts on jobs in developed countries like Australia. As offshoring spreads from manufacturing into services (the basis of our economy) things are in for a shake up. Baldwin argues that its questionable if governments can predict the impact accurately, but they can prepare in a general sense - ie: spend more on education, skills and knowledge. To paraphrase Thomas Friedman 'any process that can be digitised can be offshored and probably will be'.

Melbourne Place....

Somehow appropriate that Melbourne should be celebrated in London with a semi-lit laneway behind Australia House. Here's the history of Australia House.... wild flowers once bloomed on the vacant site.

LondonEye & Westminster from a northbound train

Flag-caping takes the world

While I'm pretty sure there were no Australian sporting fixtures taking place in Covent Garden on friday night (unless I missed a game of street cricket), the cobble stoned laneways were peppered with caped crusaders - Aussies celebrating our national day. It's nice to see the beer'n'barbie festivities transposed across the world in such numbers. And just to clarify, I don't think everyone draped in a flag is a racist - far from it. I just feel sad that my own impression of the flag has been tinged with such connotations. I like Rohan Connolly's piece in The Age about jingoistic nationalism. He captures it well.

On friday night, a woman sat opposite us to remove her ice skates - underneath lay one yellow and one green sock.

Here is the illustrious High Commission

Ice skating for Australia Day at Somerset House

A snowy morning in London

Badawi lecture

I saw Abdullah Badawi (PM Malaysia) speak at IISS today. Sensible chap. Here are a few of his pertinent points.

Tension between Islam and west can be diffused/isolated by:
- Resolving iconic grievances like Israel-Palestine and Iraq.
- Focusing on the economic development of Islamic countries (particularly human capital).
- Learning more about Islam, and its internal divisions.

He added that:
- Islam is not incompatible with democracy and economic development/ modernity.
- Radical islam feeds off perceived exclusion, ignorance, poverty and trans-national grievances.
- Muslim majority countries must respect and treat equally non-muslim minorities.
- Muslim minorities in non-muslim countries should obey the laws of their country (ie: Islam does not necessarily trump western democracy).
- He ended by calling for a jihad on economic development, listing areas where muslim countries in the OIC can cooperate to encourage mutual development.

On the whole an interesting presentation.

Flagging racism

It's not often that a raging antipodean controversy coincides so neatly with my environment here. While the virtues of the Australian flag as a symbol of national pride is debated downunder, Our glorious High Commission over the road is this week festooned with flags in preparation for Oz day. More than twenty fly like bondi blue spinnakers, capturing the chilly breeze (as if in anticipation of an inter-embassy regatta). They're quite striking on the eye and transform a decadently non-descript building into an identifiably Australian palace.

My views on the flag debate itself are simple. It's time to consider a new one.

National pride is neither all bad, nor all good. How it manifests itself owes much to the framing it is given by opinion formers - quite a responsibility. Our flag can be a symbol of inclusion only if all are able to feel included, or it can be framed as a symbol of exclusion if the slightest license is given for a negative association to be created (a la the caped crusaders protecting their beaches). Once created, a negative association is extraordinarily difficult to shift. This I fear is what has happened to our flag. Where I used to see sporting success, I now see Crunulla. Where I used to see optimism I now see hubris. Where I used to see multiculturalism, I now see white Australia. Where I used to grudgingly accept the flag's heritage I now see it as a symbolic anachronism. It's time to change the symbols of 1900 into the symbols of 2007 - a lot has changed in our country.

Yes, I'm a friggin ex-pat latte sipping chardonnay chugging socialist and my views are less worthy as a consequence, but I can't help but feel that the majority of Australians are also a little uncomfortable about the tangent our flag has taken down Sutherland Shire way. The explosion of flag-caping since Crunulla suggest that the flag is increasingly worn as a political statement (of the "we choose who... blah blah.." variety). How many post-white Australia policy immigrant communities feel like flying the flag at the moment? Not many I'm guessing. The image of a Muslim woman caped in the flag is only noteworthy for its implied protest - if it were an inclusive symbol nobody would notice.

Two anecdotal snippets. A Canadian of Maltese descent who I study with, was recounting a discussion with a young Australian of Maltese descent as both visited relatives in Malta. My friend was struck by this young Australian's views about immigration, and how openly he discussed them. Though from a recent immigrant family, he was anti-immigration. However, despite this, he had been worried that the rampaging Crunulla brigade may mistaken his Mediterranean skin for Lebanese. Complex identity issues in modern Australia.

The second experience questions whether racism in our country is dormant or on the march. Last year a close friend from South Africa visited Australia for the first time. A highly sophisticated gallery curator, who invests in edgy art, works cocktail parties like a movie star and travels the world consulting, he is as black as a gloriously moonless Kruger sky. We took him to the footy (Swannies vs Freo at the SCG) and then to a smoky pub in Surrey Hills (bearing a Barry Hall badge and matching swannies scarf). As we walked home through prosperous streets, he talked on his mobile to his wife in Johannesburg (thank goodness!). A couple of drunk young blokes began screaming at him to "piss off home you b***k c***. I've never wanted to hit someone so much in my life. He never heard (I think), and they swayed off down a laneway to piss in someone's letterbox. But I'm still completely mortified by the memory. They may as well have been wearing capes.

Anyway, I blame those who neglected to frame our nationalism in terms of inclusion, and failed to call racism by its name. Racism is simply evil, and no half-way solution will overcome it, no matter how electorally unpopular such a simple repudiation may be. People need to feel bad about expressing racist views, and challenged to be more tolerant. And if that takes ripping the flags off exclusionary thugs at rock concerts well so be it. Bravo to the BDO.

The effigy industry

Just a partially formed thought.... but is there an effigy building/burning industry, and is this another area where the forces of comparative advantage and emerging markets are concentrating production in developing countries? It's hard not to be impressed by the speed with which effigys are rolled out for the edification of international cameras - a good measure of globalisation if ever there was. Offence is caused and minutes later an effigy is on fire somewhere in the world. The quality varies from simple straw man, to elaborate life-like puppets, but the principles are the same.

An Effigy must resemble a man (women are never effigied), must be highly flamable (much like a bbq, there is nothing worse than an effigy that fails to light), must fall apart quickly to fit a 5 second tv slot, must include 'insert your slogan here' space (not all effigys are meant to resemble people - issues can be effigied too) and above all else, must be accompanied by angry shouting men (who should appear deeply aggrieved even if they love burning straw men).

Perhaps effigy firms (I'd call mine 'Men on Fire for Hire') have a product range much like shaving razors - there's your basic effigy that resembles a dissassembled bale of hay (cheap because peasants can make them but effective), your middling effigy for the aspirants out there (a touch of artistry, but like a gel strip or flexi-head mostly superfluous fluff), and then the rolls royce of effigies, (manic grin, brill creamed hair, and petrol pockets for explosive impact). I imagine the market would be quite lucrative. You know demand is on the rise when even a tv show as stale as Big Brother can elicit this.....

I love this picture

On a rainy day...

Occasionally I wake in two minds. The veil of darkness lifted slowly this morning to reveal an earth-soaking downpour, my favourite start to any day, perfect but for its cycling-unfriendliness. Resigned to inferior transport I grabbed my tube pass and joined the weaving masses underground.

My pod concocted a soundtrack for today's 'me' movie, the mundane glamorised. I walked to the station like a rockstar, all strut and purpose. Passing traffic, flashes of advertising, the train filling shuffle, all were rendered rhythmic and colourful. I walked along a half empty platform backed by the strum of Malian blues guitar - is it acceptable to skip if nobody else hears the music (or even if they do)? Others join me in the iAnonymity - an occasionally synchronised footstep hints at a common soundtrack.

In the carriage humanity hides from its own imperfect reflection, scanning faces, inventing life stories, passing instant judgements in the flickering of a meeting eye. A peak hour carriage produces a thousand silent thoughts, some well formed, some with barely a shape, some in Polish and Hindi. I find myself wondering what thoughts crossed the minds of those on the fateful carriages last July. What proportion joined the dots of the impending? How many were blissfully unaware, led by their white pod plugs to a more inviting time and place? Who saw the scared/not scared face of the bomber? Was the carriage silent that day? The arbitrariness is chilling. A carriage stops at a station and gathers a random mix of lives and stories, drawn together for mere seconds before diverging again. One bad day the polite silence was shattered.

I imagine taking the names and numbers of all on board today, slowly learning their stories, cataloguing their lives into book of carriage 23423784 as at 0954am 17/1/07 - normality, temporarily entwined and rendered rich. Today a million independent city trails are burnt on the London map, each the learned and automatic paths trod by servants of the city's present and its future. The tube is rich.

At 9am outside a Holborn pub two men are chewing pistachio nuts, the shells scattered across the clear puddles at their feet.

Heard of the Carteret Islands?

British television has its highs and lows. Last night a deadly serious topic was given such a thick coating of sugared-cliche that I began questioning whether the report was a fabrication. ITV was reporting live from ...... the Carteret Islands, 'deep in the Pacific Ocean' (cue short flash of imprecise map). I'm ashamed to say I'd never heard of them - and our excitable reporter chose not to mention that they form part of Papua New Guinea (an inconvenient fact it turns out). The highest point in the island group is 170cm above sea level - not a huge margin for error to begin with.

The islands hold the dubious honour of being among the first rendered less-habitable by tidal surges. The looming issue of forced removals due to rising sea levels is an important one, both humanitarian, and in what it implies for our collective future. I have no reason to question that the increased incidence and severity of tidal surges is linked to climate change. But it is impossible to engage seasoned sceptics on these issues by playing loose with the facts.

Here are a few of the skin-deep grabs in the ITV report:

'These people have nowhere to go' - Actually as citizens of PNG they have an entire country to relocate to. And it turns out that a number of island residents shifted there relatively recently escaping the Bouganville conflict. Bouganville (now peaceful), mainland, neither salubrious, but neither underwater either.

'When the tides recede mosquito's breed in the pools of water' - according to the WHO, mosquitoes larvae do not breed in sea water, and where brackish, rely on the addition of another source of water - ie: receding sea water would not by itself encourage malaria growth (http://www.who.int/malaria/docs/tsunamiTN2005.pdf). Semantics perhaps, but loose with the causalities.

'What have these people done to deserve to lose their home' - there are some suggestions that bomb fishing on the reef has accentuated the increase in tidal surges (UNDP). Also the islands lie in a geologically unstable region, and geological shifts may be reducing the islands elevation. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carteret_Islands)

I don't doubt that these poor people are enduring great suffering and uncertainty as they face drastic changes to their living environment, and perhaps evacuation. Nor do I question that climate change caused by industrial emissions is partly to blame. But presenting these issues in kindergarten simplicity begs questions where there should be none. To not mention that the Carteret Islands form part of the Papua New Guinean state, no doubt a deliberate journalistic ploy to embellish the impression of insecurity, would seem a cynical play on the limited geographical awareness of us couch potatoes. I've been poring over maps and spinning globes since I was a little kid, and I'd never heard mention of these islands.

Anyway..... poor them. Where countries are faced with such scenarios across their entire landmass (Tuvalu) I reckon we should be doing the neighbourly thing and making room on our lounge room floors. Until then, my frustration with journalists (and anyone else for that matter) playing loose with the facts on climate change will not diminish. There are some evil cigar-puffing industrialists out there who chuckle heartily every time someone blames a rainy day in summer on climate change. Simplicity, and the omission of 'inconvenient truths' spells the death of a cogent argument.

Things I saw that made today special

* In Camden, traffic was stopped as a mother and her two young daughters crossed the road with grace and at a leisurely pace. Mother gave a lookaway wave as thanks, and daughter followed suit, keeping her chin high and back straight, a perfect mimic at the age of 4.

* Atop Parliament Hill the vista was lit bright by overnight rain and a burst of sunshine. A cloud shadow moved slowly across London before me, dulling in turn Kings Cross, St Pauls, the pickle and Canary Warf.

* In a nearby street a blue plaque told me George Orwell had once lived in a house at the end of a long terrace, metres from the Heath.

* On the Heath a grown man flew a kite in the middle of Wednesday afternoon, alone on a vast expanse of grass. Perhaps he was a modern day Orwell clearing a moment of writers block.

* An old lady slowly carrying her shopping home, stopped at an anonymous corner and threw some breadcrumbs to expectant pigeons. She shuffled onward, a daily pleasure fulfilled.

Christmas still life in blue

Iran from above - Magic

On a flight from Dubai to London we flew the length of Iran. I took these snaps (and kicked myself I didn't pull the camera out earlier for the desert mountains in the south). Particularly interesting were the towns secluded deep in bone dry valleys - and further north, isolated within the folds of snow-blanketed mountain ranges. We flew high, but the scale of the landscape made it feel lower. Beautiful country.